Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in academia but hardly any elected officials or activists want to engage with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the status quo. Both writes two articles that seek impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and social data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments cover national emblems, duties, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a negligent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has got something to acquire from the opposing positions."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster must participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
